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Die wirtschaftliche Zukunft Mittel- und Osteuropas II

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Erwin-Schrödinger-Saal
Plenary / Panel
German and English language

Vortragende

Chief Executive Officer, UniCredit S.p.A., Italy Abstract
The countries in Central and Eastern Europe have weathered the financial crisis quite well to date, proving that the widespread concerns and scepticism prevailing a year ago were exaggerated. The recovery is underway and with a GDP forecast for 2010 of 3.1 % the region is expected to growth three times as high as Western Europe. However, there is a two-speed recovery given, with some countries in solid positions and others finding it harder to exit the recession. The crisis certainly had an impact on the banking system as well, though with committed players like UniCredit it remained resilient and profitable, continuing to show significant growth prospects.
Prime Minister of Montenegro, Podgorica Abstract
Transformation and outstanding achievements in the Central and Eastern Europe occurred in less than two decades.
All CEE economies experienced significantly higher growth before the crisis. FDI inflow, economic freedom, progress of structural reforms and aid inflow are in strong correlation with GDP growth rate in these countries.
The global economic and financial crisis interrupted the stability of the catching-up processes in the economies of Central and Eastern Europe. The crisis has imposed an obligation to reconsider and adjust policies to extreme circumstances and global economy trends.
To dampen the effect of the crisis, national authorities have adopted and put into place a number of policy measures. CEE s investors did not flee when financial turbulence hit the region.
Negative crisis implications will significantly downgrade the efforts and economic results achieved by many countries, including CEE.
The financial crisis has clearly shown how important it is for any country, not only for CEE countries to embark on policies aimed at sustainable growth paths. There is the need for sound economic policies, structural reforms, regulatory reform agenda.
In changed circumstances, CEE countries should find a way of stimulating demand in Western Europe. Prediction of risk perceptions is difficult. Employment of set of policies is needed in order to strengthen the tradable sector and to some extent compensate for a reduced inflow of FDI in CEE economies.
Formula of reach countries should not be copied because such countries have luxury to postpone certain painful steps such as implementation of social policies. As catching-up economies CEE countries have to  run faster. The CEE Region has strong growth potential and such potential should be used.
Head of Cabinet of the Secretary General, Council of the European Union, Brussels Abstract
The economic prospects have to be assessed against the backdrop of the crisis which started in 2008. Only in some CEE countries this was a financial crisis. But in all of them this was an economic crisis with negative (or much lower positive) GDP growth - mainly due to shrinking export markets. The key determinant for economic future in CEE countries will be again the economic development in the 'old' EU. But the CEE countries can do a lot themselves. They can use the crisis to show to investors that the necessary adjustments are being made (and perhaps faster and deeper compared to the 'old' Member States). Individual countries could also convince the markets about their uniqueness within the region and thus avoid the risk of falling victims to herd behaviour. However, two challenges are likely to remain. It will be harder i) to join the EU (the crisis strengthened the enlargement fatigue) and thus to decrease the 'institutional' risk, and ii) to become euro zone members and thus to eliminate the currency risk.
CEO, Raiffeisen International Bank-Holding AG, Vienna Abstract
CEE has a unique position as an Emerging Market with - also historically - a very high educational standard and a direct border to fully developed Western Europe.
CEE went over the last 20 years through an extraordinarily successful transformation process, catching up towards the standards of the Western world with impressive speed. However, the region is still only half through the transformation process, which leaves enormous growth potential for the next 1 to 2 generations, due to sustainably increasing demand for industrial production and services, including banking. The crisis has nevertheless slowed the transformation process, as CEE was hit hard by the crisis (negative GDP growth of -5.9% in 2009). CEE will not be able to grow in the future at the same pace as before the crisis, but we still forecast a positive GDP growth differential of c. 2%age points vs the Eurozone for the next years to come.
Politics and regulators need to make the right decisions now to enable the economy to exploit this potential. A close cooperation between the EU, local governments, National Banks, banks and supranationals will be needed to drive further structural reforms as well as necessary budget consolidations, to regain the confidence of international investors and return to the succesful transformation and growth path of the past. Thereby CEE must learn from the crisis of the Southeuropean countries, respectively the PIIGS: Currency, price and wage/salary developments must be in line with the productivity development. Due to the weakening of CEE currencies during the crisis, the region is highly competitive and will be able to profit from this fact.
Another key to long term success will be the development of functioning capital markets, which will give another boost to the region and reduce the dependency of local economies on FX loans.
Head of Department Economy, Der Standard, Vienna Chair

Dr. Federico GHIZZONI

Chief Executive Officer, UniCredit S.p.A., Italy

 He started his career in 1980 as customer relations manager at UniCredit's Piacenza Branch.
 Having worked as the Head of Credit & Marketing Department at Piacenza Branch, Ghizzoni assumed the position of Branch Director in Trieste between 1988 and 1989. Continuing his career as Director of Seriate Branch between 1990 and 1992, Ghizzoni was appointed Deputy General Manager to UniCredit's London Office.
 After having been appointed the UniCredit's Singapore Office General Manager in 1995, Ghizzoni became Executive Director responsible of Corporate and International Banking between 2000 and 2002 at Bank Pekao S.A, affiliate of the UniCredit Group. In 2003 Ghizzoni started to work at Koç Financial Services, a 50-50 joint venture of Koç Holding and UniCredit Group.
 In his capacity as Executive Board Member of Koç Financial Services and all its affiliates, Ghizzoni has also been serving in the upper management, responsible of auditing, risk management, planning and control. After the acquisition by Koç Financial Services of Yapi ve Kredi Bankasi and its affiliates, he become the COO & Executive Board Member of Koç Financial Services and COO & Vice Chairman of Yapi ve Kredi Bankasi.
 In July 2007, he was appointed Head of Poland's Markets Division at UniCredit and Board Member responsible for the CEE Banking Division at Bank Austria AG.
 In April 2009 he has been appointed Member of UniCredit Group Executive Management Committee.
 He is also Supervisory Board Member in various companys of UniCredit/ Bank Austria Group, such as: Bank Pekao SA, Yapi Kredi Bankasi AS, UniCredit Tiriac Bank SA, UniCredit Global Leasing.

Dr. Igor LUKSIC

Prime Minister of Montenegro, Podgorica

1998-2000 Assistant on Implementation, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Montenegro
2000-2001 Advisor for International Relations, Democratic Party of Socialists
2001 Duties of the Secretary, Ministry of Foreign Affairs
2003-2006 Parliament Member, Parliament of Serbia and Montenegro
2001, 2002, 2006, 2008 Elected a Parliament Member, Parliament of Montenegro
2003 Advisor to the Prime Minister for Public Relations
  Lecturer, Faculty of International Economics, Finance and Business, Podgorica
2003-2004 Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Serbia and Montenegro
since 2004 Finance Minister of Montenegro, Podgorica
since 2008 Deputy Prime Minister of Montenegro, Podgorica

Marek MORA

Head of Cabinet of the Secretary General, Council of the European Union, Brussels

 After completing my studies at the University of Economics in Prague, I worked for a year in a private company (at that time No. 1 in its field - the sales of greeting cards). Then I left the Czech Republic and spent almost 11 years abroad. First in Germany: I did post-graduate studies in European economics at the Europa-Institute of the University of Saarland, doctoral studies at the Europa-Kolleg in Hamburg and worked at the University of Leipzig. In 1999, I spent 4 months in the USA (3 months as an intern in the World Bank, 1 month travelling). In 2003 I moved from Germany to Belgium when I joined the European Commission (DG ECFIN) as one of the first newcomers from the "new Member States". I stayed until September 2006, when I was asked to work for the Czech Government.
 I was for about a year Deputy Minister for Education (in the Czech system, a Deputy Minister could be a senior official - like me, not necessarily a politician) and then for 2,5 years in the Prime Minister's Office: as a Deputy to the Vice-Prime Minister (and after the collapse of the government in March 2009) to the Minister for European Affairs and then as Advisor the the Prime Minister. In all these positions, I was in charge of European affairs, in particular in the PM office where I had to prepare and then to conduct the Czech EU Presidency. My last important task in the Prime Minister's Office was to prepare the October 2009 European Council so that the Lisbon Treaty could be ratified in the Czech Republic. Since April 2010, I have taken my position as Head of Cabinet of the Secretary General of the European Union.

Dkfm. Dr. Herbert STEPIC

CEO, Raiffeisen International Bank-Holding AG, Vienna

1965-1972 Studies at the Vienna University of Economics and Business Administration
1972 Doctorate in Economics and Commerce
1972 Assistant to the managing board in a private sector company
  responsible for promoting the exports, particularly to overseas regions, of Raiffeisen Group customers
1973 Joined Genossenschaftliche Zentralbank AG (GZB), now Raiffeisen Zentralbank Österreich AG (RZB): Entrusted with establishing Raiffeisen s foreign-trade promotion department
1977 Appointed Prokurist (authorized signatory), GZB, simultaneously appointed Managing Director of F.J. Elsner und Co., Vienna, a GZB subsidiary specializing in East-West trade
1978 Head, GZB's correspondent banking department: Responsible for establishing GZB s network of correspondent banks
1986 Appointed Director, Raiffeisen Zentralbank Österreich AG (RZB)
1987 Appointed Member, Board of RZB, responsible for RZB's international business
1995 Appointed Deputy Chairman, RZB
2001 CEO, Raiffeisen International Bank-Holding AG (Raiffeisen International), the holding company controlling RZB's banking subsidiaries in Central and Eastern Europe

Andreas SCHNAUDER

Head of Department Economy, Der Standard, Vienna

1986 Studium der Handelswissenschaften, Wirtschaftsuniversität Wien
1989-1991 Trainee-Programm, Girozentrale
1992-1993 Hochschullehrgang für Journalismus, Institut für Publizistik, Universität Wien
1992 Volontariat (danach freier Mitarbeiter), Wirtschaftsressort, Der Standard
1994 Anstellung, Der Standard
1997 Stellvertretender Ressortleiter Wirtschaft, Die Presse
2003-2005 Korrespondent in Brüssel
seit 2005 Stellvertretender Ressortleiter Wirtschaft, Der Kurier
seit 2007 Ressortleiter Wirtschaft, Der Standard

Finanzmarktgespräche

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