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Energy and Security

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Erwin-Schrödinger-Saal
Plenary / Panel
German and English language

Speakers

Geschäftsführer der PVM Oil Associates GmbH, Wien Abstract
Johannes Benigni, Managing Director of PVM Oil Associates Vienna, will give a general outlook on the future need for energy, showing how demand will rise steadily by around 40% until 2030. Oil, natural gas and coal - traditional fossil fuels - will all remain central to our energy use. At the same time, while there will be growth in that sector too, alternative sources of energy will not represent a larger share of our demand in 25 years time.
In terms of oil, demand growth will be driven predominantly by transport use, as well as an increase in industrial use. Power generation and residential/commercial use of oil will not see any significant growth. Overall, this also means that the share of transport use of oil as a whole will increase to about 56% in the next 25 years.
Gas demand will also grow, and here we will see a strong shift away from Europe and North America to Asia in terms of the overall share of global consumption. Natural gas will also increase be the only fuel to significantly increase its share in power generation - namely from 23-27% until 2030. Coal will however easily remain the greatest contributor towards power generation, with a share of 45% in this sector in 2030.
For oil, the trend is clearly also towards Asia consuming the lion s share in 25 years, namely 34% (total Asia). The Middle East will also increase its share slightly (+3 percentage points), as will Latin America. North America and Europe s shares will decrease by 5 percentage points each. In terms of world oil supply, Opec is expected to provide the majority of the new oil required, thus leading to its share of world production slowly rising, eventually to over 50% again. In turn, PVM expects non-Opec output to plateau from around 2010 and to gradually decline after 2020. This is simply because the majority of the world s conventional reserves are held by Opec members, many of these in the Middle East.
One of the biggest challenges in the oil industry is whether the downstream or refining industry can provide sufficient and adequate capacity to turn the world s crude into the required products. While the quality of the world s crude oil is gradually declining, the refined products markets consumers seek are lighter and cleaner, driven by the booming and changing transport sector.
As a whole, the fact that demand will continue to be driven by Asia-Pacific, North America and Europe, while supply of oil will increasingly be sourced from the Middle East and Africa, as well as the Former Soviet Union, will lead to a dislocation in historical supply/demand patterns. This will require more trade, more shipping and pipeline infrastructure, but also mean more risk and the need for more financial instruments to hedge these risks. PVM has calculated that while in the period 1990-2002, the annual increase in oil shipped around the world was 540,000 b/d, this amount will more than double to 1.2 million b/d for the period 2002-2010. One of the most obvious effects this trend has had is that the US has significantly increased its imports of refined products, though this is in part due to the heavy damage done to its refining industry by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005. While the US mainly needs to import gasoline, as does the Middle East, Europe s deficit lies more in gas oil. Asia as a whole will remain structurally short of most products in the foreseeable future. Fuel oil however will be phased out more and more in all parts of the globe.
This presentation will also review the main alternatives to fossil fuels. Hydropower, as well as wind and solar energy will see the greatest growth rates, though biomass will retain by far the largest share of over 50% by 2030. Nuclear energy is likely to see something of a comeback, despite concerns about accidents and long-term disposal of waste. Reluctance to increase dependency on energy imports and the lack of CO2 emissions are strong arguments in favour. Currently some 27 nuclear power plants are being constructed, though most of these in the lesser developed world. In Europe, only Finland is currently building a new plant, though the UK now looks set to change its policy of phasing out nuclear power, and has plans to build six new reactors.
Wind energy is set to grow too, though its use will remain limited due to intermittency of supply and transmission problems. Solar energy meanwhile is forecast to remain the least significant alternative energy source, though may find more widespread use in domestic or other small-scale power generation.
Many of these energy sources are - currently at least - significantly more expensive than oil. While crude prices remain so high, this should be no problem, particularly as many sectors receive government support. Were prices to fall again though, development of non-fossil energy sources could be hampered.
Biofuels, i.e. gasoline and diesel blended with material made from renewable sources such as rapeseed, palm oil, jatropha-oil, sugar cane, corn and others, are currently booming. In terms of their use in the transport sector, one major advantage is that neither vehicles nor retail infrastructure need to be adapted - at least while the content level remains quite low, in the range of 5%. However, truly large-scale production of these fuels is not possible without significantly displacing other agricultural production. Neither are they more fuel efficient or per se cleaner in terms of emissions. However, they do stem from renewable resources, and in the growing cycle of the respective plants, can be expected to absorb some 30-40% of the CO2 produced in their combustion.
Lastly, the challenge remains to reconcile the world s strongly growing energy needs with the strain placed on the environment by CO2 emissions. Developing Asia, in particular through its power generation sector, will increase its share of emissions significantly to 34% by 2030. Some parts of the world have committed themselves to decreasing their CO2 emissions, but others, particularly in the developing world, do not want to stymie growth. Aligning these two goals is our long-term challenge.
Director, Global Climate and Energy Project, Stanford University Abstract
Energy is the lifeblood of modern societies. Yet even today, approximately two billion people on Earth do without basic energy services. Within 20 years 7.5 billion humans will occupy this planet, about 25 percent more than do so now. They will want to heat and light their homes, power electrical devices, move from place to place, grow food, and drink clean water. Supplying the energy required is, by itself, a significant challenge, but it is only part of the challenge that we must face in this century. It is apparent that humans are interacting with the planet on a global scale. The concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere has increased by a third from its preindustrial levels, with attendant impacts on climate, and the pH (a measure of how acid or alkaline a solution is) of the upper ocean has also changed as the CO2 from the atmosphere dissolves, which affects many species at the base of the food chain in the ocean.

Human activities are responsible for emissions of about 25 billion tones of CO2 per year now, and unless changes are made in the use of fossil fuels, those emissions will grow significantly during this century. If we are to make progress toward stabilizing the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere, we will need to make substantial reductions in emissions of CO2, methane, and other greenhouse gases, even as we accommodate the needs of a growing population and fast-growing economies in the developing world. Some estimates suggest that by mid-century we will need new energy systems roughly the size of those we have now, but with no new emissions of greenhouse gases, a daunting challenge.

There is much that can be done now to make progress toward this goal. There are many opportunities for much more efficient use of energy in both the developing and developed economies. Solar, wind, and nuclear energy resources, which can be used to produce electricity with minimal greenhouse gas emissions, can be deployed. Use of biological energy conversions and biofuels also offers a variety of opportunities for capturing sunlight in a form that can be converted for other uses, with transportation among the most important. While there are many ways forward now, there is also a need for a significant international research program across a broad portfolio of energy resources, transformations, and uses. There is no single, simple solution to the challenge, but with a wide-ranging, sustained effort in research and implementation of improved energy technologies, we humans can develop a set of energy systems to support human societies in a way that protects and restores the planetary systems on which we depend.
CEO and Chairman of the Executive Board, OMV, Vienna Abstract
The growing impact of geopolitical risks to global integrated energy markets has been changing the common energy paradigm. A surprising oil demand increase caused by the strong economic dynamics in Asia, a new wave of  resource nationalism and international disputes concerning gas-contracts and infrastructure are signposts calling for action. Three decades after founding the International Energy Agency (IEA) responding to possible oil supply disruptions, the energy security and price issue is back at the political agenda. Energy has become a central part of foreign-policy at G8-summits, EU-Councils, at multilateral and bilateral meetings, from Washington to Brussels, from Moscow to Beijing.

In such an environment a national oil company like OMV sees it s main challenges in the areas of developing additional oil and gas reserves, improving the energy infrastructure and promoting new energy technology and sources.

Looking to the abundant reserves of conventional oil and the huge amount of untapped unconventional hydrocarbons, the oil industry sees the constraints more in the limited access and in the problematic conditions for investments than in limited resources or technology. So the real constraints are mainly to find  above ground . The oil and gas industry is planning substantial investments to improve the recovery factor, to build-up production and refining capacities as well as new transportation networks to transform proven reserves to real supply for consumers.

One of the top European energy security and longterm price issues is the compensation of decreasing production volumes in the North Sea by additional oil supply from Russia and the Caspian region. A further important challenge is the coverage of predicted incremental energy consumption in the EU-25, which is dominated up to 80% by gas. Growing LNG-volumes and new European supply routes  like the Nabucco gas-pipeline project  should meet these future needs. Stable international partnerships, sound financial structure and a competitive legal framework are preconditions for such key-investments.

Technology-driven efforts are developed in all business segments involving upstream, downstream and gas business. A case in point are OMV s programs to offer bio-fuels and bio-methane as alternative fuels for the mobility sector and to improve energy efficiency at productions sites and the marketed product qualities. A  Future Energy Fund should accelerate the progress in modern energy technologies and integrate alternative, renewable energy into the traditional business.
Freie Journalistin, Wien Chair

Mag. Johannes BENIGNI

Geschäftsführer der PVM Oil Associates GmbH, Wien

1991-1994 CA Global Futures, Wien - Energy & Commodity Bereich, Head of Department: Mitarbeiterführung und Entwicklung von Absicherungs- und Risikostrategien für Kunden, Aufbau des OTC-Geschäftes für die Bank
 Entwicklung und Beratung bez. des effizienten Einsatzes von Bepreisungsmechanismen im Strom-, Gas- und Ölmarkt
1994-dato PVM Oil Associates GmbH, Wien; Geschäftsführer und Mitbegründer der Wiener Firmengruppe mit derzeit ca. 37 Mitarbeitern. Strategische Beratung von Energiekonzernen und Regierungen beim Migrationsprozess im Rahmen der Energiemarktliberalisierung; Prozessoptimierung und Risikomanagement-Beratung in Energiekonzernen;

Ph.D. Franklin M. ORR

Director, Global Climate and Energy Project, Stanford University

1970-1972 Asst. to Director, Off. of Fed. Activities, U.S.EPA
1976-1977 Research Engineer, Shell Development Company
1978-1985 Head, Miscible Flooding & Gas Injection, Petroleum Recovery Res. Ctr., New Mexico Inst. Mining & Tech.
1991-1994 Chair, Petroleum Engineering Dept., Stanford University
1994-2002 Dean, School of Earth Sciences, Stanford Univ.
since 1985 Professor, Petroleum Engr. Dept., Stanford Univ.

Dr. Wolfgang RUTTENSTORFER

CEO and Chairman of the Executive Board, OMV, Vienna

 Doctoral Studies at the University of Economics and Business Administration in Vienna
1976 started to work at OMV
1985 joined the Planning and Controlling Department
1989 took responsibility for the Strategic Development of the Group
1990 appointed Head of Marketing
1992-1997 Executive Board, responsible for Finance and Chemicals
1997 became Deputy Minister of Finance
2000 rejoined the OMV Executive Board being responsible for Finance
since 2002 CEO and Chairman of the Executive Board

Dr. Gisela HOPFMÜLLER-HLAVAC

Freie Journalistin, Wien

1984-2009 Ressort Innenpolitik in der Radio-Information, ORF - Österreichischer Rundfunk
1991-1997 Ressortleiterin, ORF - Österreichischer Rundfunk
1997-2002 Sendungsverantwortliche "Report", Moderation des politischen TV-Wochenmagazins des ORF "Report"
1999 Sendungsverantwortung für "Report International"
2001 Sendungsverantwortung für "Europa-Panorama"
2002-2005 Moderation von "Modern Times", des Zukunftsmagazins des ORF
2002-2009 Leiterin der Hauptabteilung "Bildung und Zeitgeschehen", ORF - Österreichischer Rundfunk
seit 2009 Freie Journalistin und Moderatorin

Technology Forum

show timetable

24.08.2006

10:00 - 12:00Technology Brunch sponsored by Tiroler ZukunftsstiftungSocial
11:00 - 22:00Presentation CD-Laboratory "Biomechanics in skiing"Culture
13:00 - 13:30Welcome by the OrganisersPlenary
13:30 - 14:00Welcome StatementsPlenary
14:00 - 15:00OriginsPlenary
15:30 - 17:30Competition for TalentPlenary
19:00 - 20:15Research at the Cutting EdgePlenary
20:15 - 21:30Science and Research Models and Best PracticePlenary
21:30 - 23:30Evening Reception sponsored by Alcatel AustriaSocial

25.08.2006

09:00 - 18:00Junior AlpbachBreakout
09:00 - 15:00Working Group 01: Science and Technology in Sport: Challenge for Industry and Benefit for PeopleBreakout
09:00 - 15:00Working Group 02: Technology Transfer: the Motor for Developing LocationsBreakout
09:00 - 15:00Working Group 03: Convergence and Complexity in TechnologyBreakout
09:00 - 15:00Working Group 04: Convergence and Excellence in ScienceBreakout
09:00 - 15:00Working Group 05: Innovative Telematics Systems in Intermodal TransportBreakout
09:00 - 15:00Working Group 06: Changes in Technology and Natural Sciences - Is Our Tertiary Education System Still Up to Date?Breakout
09:00 - 15:00Working Group 07: High-performance Materials from Nature as an Opportunity for Economic GrowthBreakout
09:00 - 15:00Working Group 08: The Reassuring HabitatBreakout
09:00 - 15:00Working Group 09: Energy Security - the Case of Hydro CarbonsBreakout
16:00 - 17:15Convergence and Complexity in Science and TechnologyPlenary
17:15 - 18:00Faith and SciencePlenary
19:00 - 20:00Atom and Eve - an Alpbach MinioperaCulture
20:00 - 23:30Reception sponsored by the Province of Lower AustriaSocial

26.08.2006

09:00 - 10:00Energy and SecurityPlenary
10:00 - 10:30Alpbach 2006 - Resumée Junior AlpbachPlenary
11:00 - 12:30Science and DemocracyPlenary
12:30 - 13:30The Universe is a Strange PlacePlenary
13:30 - 14:30Farewell Reception sponsored by Microsoft AustriaSocial