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09: Predictability

Seminar / Seminar
in englischer Sprache

We all want to know the future so that we can make good decisions. Hence there is a big demand for forecasts. But is it always possible to obtain a valid forecast? We examine predictability from mathematical and empirical perspectives. Lenny Smith’s central interest is in determining the relevant measurements in a data rich environment, constructing nonlinear models and evaluating the results. Kesten Green will describe the Forecasting Principles Project. He will discuss the Seer-sucker theory and unsettling findings on predictability as they relate to technology, conflicts, the natural world, and climate.

Senior Research Fellow, Business and Economic Forecasting Unit, Monash University, Melbourne
Director, Centre for the Analysis of Time Series, London School of Economics, London

Dr. Kesten GREEN

Senior Research Fellow, Business and Economic Forecasting Unit, Monash University, Melbourne

Department of Economics at Victoria University of Wellington Founder and Director of the publisher of Bettor Informed, a computerised horse-racing information magazine based on assessment of probabilities under different conditions Founder and Director of Infometrics Limited, a leading New Zealand economic forecasting and consulting house Founder and Managing Director of Pisé Blocks Limited, a manufacturer of pressed earth blocks for construction Founder and Managing Director of Decision Research Ltd, which provides forecasts, programme evaluations, and surveys, as well as advice on forecasting, research, and management decision making Senior Research Fellow, Victoria Management School, Victoria University of Wellington Visiting Senior Lecturer, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, Monash University
since 1995

Ph.D. Leonard A. SMITH

Director, Centre for the Analysis of Time Series, London School of Economics, London

 Raised in Florida, receiving his Bachelors degree, with Honours, in "Physics, Mathematics and Computer Science" from the University of Florida and his MA, MPhil and Ph.D. in Physics from Columbia University (USA). Since 1992 he has been a Senior Research Fellow (Mathematics) at Pembroke College Oxford, working in the Oxford Centre for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (OCIAM). He became a Professor of Statistics (Research), at the London School of Economics (LSE) in October 2004, where he is Director of the Centre for the Analysis of Time Series. His research interests focus on dynamical systems and predictability, with examples ranging from mathematical systems and laboratory experiments to weather and climate, each of which are discussed in his recently published book "A very short introduction to chaos" from OUP.


Timetable einblenden
kategorie: Alle Plenary Seminar Social


15:00 - 15:30 Eröffnung des Europäischen Forums Alpbach 2008 Plenary
15:30 - 17:00 Eröffnungsreferate Plenary
17:00 - 18:30 Vorstellung der Seminarinhalte Plenary
18:30 - 21:00 Eröffnungsempfang Social


Seminar 11: Transatlantic relations Seminar
Seminar 08: Who is in control? How the brain controls our thoughts and actions Seminar
Seminar 10: Public opinion, opinion research and political decision-making Seminar
Seminar 09: Predictability Seminar
Seminar 14: Art and Perception Seminar
Seminar 13: Wahrnehmung von Verantwortung im „globalen Verfassungsnetzwerk“ – Möglichkeiten und Grenzen (inter)nationaler Höchstgerichte Seminar
Seminar 12: Understanding fundamentalism: An interdisciplinary analysis of „Strong Religion“ Seminar


Seminar 01: Climate change and what we need to do about it Seminar
Seminar 07: Security policy becoming a European issue Seminar
Seminar 05: A European people? Perception and formation of European citizens Seminar
Seminar 06: Ethics and biomedicine: Analysis of decisions and value judgements Seminar
Seminar 03: Wirtschaftsforschung und Wirtschaftspolitik Seminar
Seminar 02: Utopias and alternative (visions of) worlds Seminar
Seminar 04: Geschichtliche Situationsdeutungen und historische Entscheidungen Seminar


18:30 - 19:30 Special Lecture: Europa – Strategische Entscheidungen für den Kontinent Plenary


15:30 - 17:00 Plenarveranstaltung: Klimawandel und Vorhersagbarkeit Plenary


17:00 - 18:30 Plenarveranstaltung: 40 Jahre Prager Frühling Plenary


15:30 - 17:00 Plenarveranstaltung: Was blieb von 1968? Plenary